Dating the Great Tribulation: Historical Perspectives

1. Introduction

Dating the 2300-day Great Tribulation shows that it is historical rather than future. It is not the same as the final seven years of the seventy-week prophecy as Futurists teach.

In our Introduction to the Great Tribulation, we answered these questions:

1. When was the Great Tribulation?
2. Why will it never happen in our lifetime?
3. What was the Abomination of Desolation?
4. Had the gospel been preached to all nations before the Great Tribulation?
5. Why does Revelation equate Jerusalem to Sodom and Egypt?
6. Who was Josephus, and is he a credible historian?

A. Seven Seals

We then examined the Seven Seals of Revelation and their relationship to the Great Tribulation of 66 CE to 73 CE. We answered these questions:

1. What are the Seven Seals?
2. How do the seals connect to the Great Tribulation?
3. Was a quarter of the population killed, as Revelation states?

B. 144,000

In our third lesson, we studied the 144,000 and determined that they were Jews of the first century prior to and during the Great Tribulation.

C. Calendars

Then we looked at the essential elements of different calendars during the first century, if we are to understand the historical view of the Great Tribulation

D. Seventy-Weeks Prophecy

Our lessons on Daniel’s Seventy-Weeks Prophecy showed that the seventy weeks calculated exactly to the start of Jesus’ ministry. Using our knowledge of the different calendars, we can calculate the start of the New Covenant, Stephen’s martyrdom and from there, Jesus’ birth in 4 BCE.

E. Euphrates Army

Then, in our last lesson, we learned that the Bible does not say that the Euphrates army consisted of two hundred million soldiers; it comprised a unit of ten thousand horsemen and another unit of ten thousand men. These details match exactly what historians agree happened. A legion of horsemen called the Legio Equestris, and a second legion of 10,000 men, came from the Euphrates to attack Jerusalem.

2. Refreshing the Dating Calendar of the 2300 Day Great Tribulation

As we learned in our lesson on the calendars active at the time, there were four main calendars:

1. Macedonian, which was lunisolar and mostly used by Josephus
2. Julian, which was solar
3. Lunisolar Hebrew
4. Tyre, which Josephus used occasionally.

Using the Utrecht University tool, we can convert Julian to Hebrew and vice versa. Macedonian directly transfers to Julian. This allows us to accurately date the Great Tribulation.

The Hebrew calendar follows a nineteen-year lunisolar cycle that begins in September. This cycle includes seven leap years occurring in the 3rd, 6th, 8th, 11th, 14th, and 17th years. During a leap year, an extra month is added, usually in March. This is how it appeared during the Jewish-Roman War, which is the period of the Great Tribulation. Each non-lunar year is estimated to be between 353 and 355 days, while each lunar year ranges from 383 to 385 days.

3. The Great Two-Thousand-Three-Hundred-Day Tribulation

Having established that the Great Tribulation is not the seven years of peace from October 23, 26 CE, to October 15, 33 CE, we now need to explore the dates covered by the 2300-day Great Tribulation.

A. Daniel’s Prophecy 6 years 4 Months

Daniel prophesied a six-year and four-month period during which the earthly temple would be cleansed. The Temple is now within us, not a physical building but the church and the individuals who make it up.

Then I heard a holy one speaking; and another holy one said to that certain one who was speaking, “How long will the vision be, concerning the daily sacrifices and the transgression of desolation, the giving of both the sanctuary and the host to be trampled underfoot?” And he said to me, “For two thousand three hundred days; then the sanctuary shall be cleansed.”

Daniel 8:13-14

The period until the sacrifices cease and the hosts of Jews are trampled underfoot would be 2300 days, or six years and four months. Indeed, Josephus himself mentions the trampling to death.

many of them were trampled on by one another, while a great number fell

History of the Destruction of Jerusalem, Josephus 6.257

B. Jesus’ Prophetic Warning

Jesus’ prophecy about the Great Tribulation is directly linked to Daniel’s 2300-day prophecy through shared terminology.

“Therefore when you see the ‘abomination of desolation,’ spoken of by Daniel the prophet, standing in the holy place” (whoever reads, let him understand), “then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains. Let him who is on the housetop not go down to take anything out of his house. And let him who is in the field not go back to get his clothes. But woe to those who are pregnant and to those who are nursing babies in those days! And pray that your flight may not be in winter or on the Sabbath. For then there will be great tribulation, such as has not been since the beginning of the world until this time, no, nor ever shall be.

Matthew 24:15-21

We have seen previously that the abomination that causes the desolation of Jerusalem refers to the Roman armies.

Jesus explains that the Great Tribulation foretold by Daniel begins when you can escape into the mountains, shortly after the armies leave Jerusalem. Because the Jews defeated the Romans, they had an extra four weeks to prepare their food before fleeing.

4. Prelude to the Great Tribulation

A. Sign of Jesus’ Coming

The most frequently cited reference about the coming of the Son of Man is in Matthew:

Then the sign of the Son of Man will appear in heaven, and then all the tribes of the earth will mourn, and they will see the Son of Man coming on the clouds of heaven with power and great glory.

Matthew 24:30

The context still falls within the one generation of Jesus’ Last Days’ Prophecy. It is important to recognise that Matthew 24:30 does not refer to Jesus’ final and future return. It is a sign, not the actual return itself. Jesus’ teachings about His comings indicate that the New Testament refers to six distinct times of His coming, and that ‘parousia’ does not refer solely to the future return of Jesus Christ.

Several signs and frightening sights took place in 66, 67, and 69 CE.

B. Three Calendars

During Josephus’ era, three main calendars were used in the first Jewish Roman wars. The first column shows the reference by Josephus. The second column lists the dates cited by Josephus, mostly in the Macedonian calendar but, on occasion, in the Tyre Calendar. The following two columns display these dates according to the Julian and Hebrew Calendars.

If it is highlighted in blue, this indicates the closest and most probable date. If it is in red, then it has been confirmed as the correct date. This table is partly based on Barbara Levick’s (D.Phil.) work, “Vespasian,” regarded by many as the definitive account of Vespasian’s life. I have added the signs associated with the years.

C. Table of Events Dating the Great Tribulation

D. Same Woe Over Jerusalem for Seven Years.

A man named Jesus began prophesying about the coming Great Tribulation for seven years and five months in 63 CE. He prophesied from before the armies encircled Jerusalem until Pentecost 70 CE, when he was killed by one of the siege engines.

… Jesus, the son of Ananus, …who, four years before the war began, and at a time when the city was in very great peace and prosperity,… “A voice from the east, a voice from the west, a voice from the four winds, a voice against Jerusalem and the holy house, … This was his cry, as he went about by day and by night, in all the lanes of the city.
He continued this ditty for seven years and five months, without growing hoarse, or being tired …
For as he was going round upon the wall, he cried out with his utmost force, “Woe, woe, to the city again, and to the people, and the holy house!” And just as he added at the last,–“Woe, woe, to myself also!” there came a stone out of one of the engines, and smote him, and killed him immediately;

Josephus 6.300-301, 308-309

E. Sword Over Jerusalem and a Comet.

Then, a comet, presumably Halley’s Comet, lasted for all of 66 CE. Not only this there was a sword that hung over the city of Jerusalem.

Thus were the miserable people persuaded by these deceivers, and such as belied God himself; while they did not attend, nor give credit, to the signs that were so evident and did so plainly foretell their future desolation; but, like men infatuated, without either eyes to see, or minds to consider, did not regard the denunciations that God made to them. Thus, there was a star resembling a sword, which stood over the city, and a comet that continued for a whole year.

Josephus 6.288-289

5. Sign of the Son of Man

“Immediately after the tribulation of those days, the sun will be darkened, and the moon will not give its light; the stars will fall from heaven, and the powers of the heavens will be shaken. Then the sign of the Son of Man will appear in heaven, and then all the tribes of the earth will mourn, and they will see the Son of Man coming on the clouds of heaven with power and great glory.

Matthew 24:29-30

In our lesson on Jesus’ comings, we look at the Greek and learn that “After” is more correctly translated as “amid”, and “Then” is actually “then, at that time”. So the Sign of the Coming of God would have happened around the time of the Great Tribulation.

A. Historians

According to three historians, in that same year, around 2 to 4 million people witnessed chariots and horsemen rushing through the cities of Judea. We have a complete lesson on this sign, as it fulfils Matthew 24:29-30.

On the twenty-first day of the month of Artemisius [Jyar], a certain prodigious and incredible phenomenon appeared; I suppose the account of it would seem to be a fable, were it not related by those that saw it, and were not the events that followed it of so considerable a nature as to deserve such signals; for, before sunsetting, chariots and troops of soldiers in their armor were seen running about among the clouds, and surrounding of cities.

Josephus The Wars of the Jews 6.5.3

B. Cestius Gallus

Shortly before this sign, another significant event occurred. Cestius Gallus, after travelling for three to six weeks, arrived at Corinth to meet Nero. As a member of the Roman Senate and governor of Syria, he informed Nero that on the first day of Passover, 256,500 sacrifices were offered. Jewish law required a minimum of ten persons per sacrifice; thus, the temporary population of Jerusalem would have been around 2,700,200, all of whom were religiously pure and Jewish (e.g. circumcised). Additionally, many more foreigners would have been present, not included in this number.

And that this city could contain so many people in it is manifest by that number of them which was taken under Cestius, who being desirous of informing Nero of the power of the city, who otherwise was disposed to contemn that nation, entreated the high priests, if the thing were possible, to take the number of their whole multitude. (423) So these high priests, upon the coming of their feast which is called the Passover, when they slay their sacrifices, from the ninth hour till the eleventh, but so that a company not less than ten belong to every sacrifice (for it is not lawful for them to feast singly by themselves), and many of us are twenty in a company, (424) found the number of sacrifices was two hundred and fifty-six thousand five hundred; (425) which, upon the allowance of no more than ten that feast together, amounts to two million seven hundred thousand and two hundred persons that were pure and holy;

Josephus The Wars of the Jews 6.9.3

Telling Nero that this was no ordinary city, he urged Nero to allow Cestius to attack and seize Jerusalem for the Roman Empire. Nero did not agree to this plan, wanting to keep peace with the jews. He would change his mind seven months later, after the defeat of the XII Fulminata Legion and the taking of the Aquila in November of the same year.

C. Caiaphas Would See This Sign

We also learned that Jesus prophesied the High Priest Caiaphas, who had Jesus killed, would witness this event. He did!

6. Start Date of the Great Tribulation

A. Arrival of the XII Fulminata Legion

On 13 November, 66 CE, Cestius Gallus arrived at Beth-Boren with the XII Fulminata legion, having marched along the Mediterranean highway from guarding the crossings of the Euphrates.

They circled around Jerusalem and established their camp 10 km to the east on Mount Scopus, then attacked from that side three days later.

B. Jesus’ Lightning Warning

This well-known legion, commanded by Cestius, is known as the Twelfth Lightning Legion.

Jesus gave many signs that the Jews would need to flee Jerusalem. He warned that His coming would be like lightning, which flashes across the sky from east to west.

For as the lightning comes from the east and flashes to the west, so also will the coming of the Son of Man be. For wherever the carcass is, there the eagles will be gathered together.

Matthew 24:27-28

In Jerusalem, most thunderstorms come from the west, not the east. In our area, if someone had said that a thunderstorm was approaching from the east, it would have sparked my interest. Likewise, it would have grabbed the attention of the listeners and readers of the Jews.

When the Twelfth Lightning Legion arrived from the Jordan and pitched camp on Mt Scopus, 1.4 km east of Jerusalem, the Jews would have been worried.

The prophetic people would have been amazed, as this was a sign Jesus mentioned in Matthew 24. They would have recognised the standard and seen thousands of shields with lightning bolts. And they were under the standard of the eagle gathered together. But why did Jesus say that the lightning would go from the east to the west?

D. Lightning Goes From East to West

Led by Simon ben Giora, the Jews defeated them, causing the Romans to retreat from the city to the west! Nine days later, on November 25, the Romans were defeated, and the Jews captured their Aquila, or Eagle, standard. This well-known battle at Beth-Boren, between the Jewish rebels and the Romans, took place to the west of Jerusalem, which would have heightened the prophetic warning to flee.

This defeat was a significant blow to the honour and prestige of Emperor Nero and the Romans. When news reached Emperor Nero in Greece, Vespasian was sent to Judea to restore it by force, signalling the start of the First Jewish-Roman War.

The wise Christians would recall Jesus’ prophetic call to flee the city when it was besieged. There were also the prophetic warnings of Jesus of Anunus for seven years, along with the sword and the comet still looming over the city. The wise would leave Jerusalem as soon as it was safe to do so.

7. Start and End Dates of the Great Tribulation

A. Jesus’ Prediction of the Start of the Great Tribulation

Some may argue that the date the Great Tribulation should begin with the first rebellion in Jerusalem in May 66 CE. However, the initial condition for the Great Tribulation to commence is that Jerusalem is surrounded. It also means that the army must cease its encirclement of Jerusalem, as the listeners are instructed to flee once they see the army move west.

“But when you see Jerusalem surrounded by armies, then know that its desolation is near. Then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains, let those who are in the midst of her depart, and let not those who are in the country enter her. For these are the days of vengeance, that all things which are written may be fulfilled.

Luke 21:20-22

The days of retribution against the Jews began soon after the XII Fulminata legion departed, and their aquila was taken from them, not centuries later.

B. All Things Fulfilled

Jesus states that all his prophecies concerning the Great Tribulation will come true once Jerusalem is first encircled. Daniel says that the Great Tribulation will be completed in 2300 days.

“How long will the vision be, concerning the daily sacrifices and the transgression of desolation, the giving of both the sanctuary and the host to be trampled underfoot?”
And he said to me, “For two thousand three hundred days; then the sanctuary shall be cleansed.”

Daniel 8:13-14

Daniel clarifies what must be completed within those 2300 days:

• Transgression of desolation (Roman armies) will complete their God-given work (April 14, 73 CE).
• Daily sacrifices will end (fulfilled on 14 July 70 CE).
• Giving of the sanctuary to be trampled underfoot (fulfilled August 10, 70 CE).
• The host (Jewish people) was to be trampled underfoot (April 14, 73 CE)

C. Sanctuary is Made Right

Daniel declares all of these things will “cleanse” the sanctuary. However, the Hebrew word here is:

• צָדַק ṣâḏaq; to make right,

Nowhere else in the Bible does it suggest cleansing. In other words, the sanctuary will be restored through its destruction because the Temple no longer applies now that the Old Covenant has been abolished.

D. Calculating the End Date of the Great Tribulation

Now that we have established the Great Tribulation began shortly after 8th November 66 CE, following the Romans’ attack on Jerusalem, we can refine the actual start date.

Since a Hebrew month has 30 days, a leap year includes an extra month, Adar II, added in March, extending the year by another 30 days.  We know that 67 CE, 70 CE, and 73 CE were leap years. Therefore, there were 353 days in 66 CE.

We know that the last city to fall in Israel that would fulfil Daniel’s prophecy was Masada on Xanthicus 15, or most likely April 14, 73 CE. Looking at the Utrecht University calculator, we know this is Nisan 19 in the Hebrew Calendar.

E. Calculating the Start of the Great Tribulation

We can work back from the fulfilment of the 2300-day prophecy to find the start date of the Great Tribulation. April 14 is the date that the Jews and Rome finished their war. If we subtract 226 days, we arrive at 1 Tishrei 72 CE, the start of the new Hebrew year. We then subtract 2185 days to arrive at 1 Tishrei 66 CE. We then add 115 days, which brings us to 21 Tevet (27th December) of 66 CE.

This date is the likely start date of the Great Tribulation, 1960 years ago, not some time in the future. For those who want to double-check, here is my spreadsheet to calculate the dates. We will look at what happened around that date and who started the Tribulation in Section Nine.

8. The 66 CE Jerusalem Diaspora

A. Believers in Jesus First to Go

Josephus explains that the Jews began fleeing Jerusalem as if it were sinking.

After this calamity had befallen Cestius, many of the most eminent of the Jews swam away from the city, as from a ship when it was going to sink;

Josephus War of the Jews 2.556

It is likely that the Jewish Christians were the ones who immediately fled. Having seen the army come from the Euphrates, bearing lightning bolts on their shields and standards, they would have remembered Jesus’ command to flee straight away.

“then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains. Let him who is on the housetop not go down to take anything out of his house.

Matthew 24:16-17

B. Flee to the Mountains

The wise who sought to escape Jerusalem following Jesus’ prophetic warning fled to 

• Mesopotamia (Iraq)
• Mediterranean (Spain, France, Italy, Greece, Cyprus and Turkey)
• Within Judea (Masada and Petla)

C. Summary of Prelude to Great Tribulation

D. Defeat of the Romans on 8th November.

But there were still plenty of Jews who would have decided to leave once they had fulfilled their obligations as below. We learned that by this time, there were already close to 144,000 Jews who had accepted Jesus as Lord.

Jesus’s warning to the Jews was to flee to the mountains. The start of the Great Tribulation happened shortly after the Romans surrounded the city, when lightning (XII Fulminata) moved from east to west, and the army could no longer encircle Jerusalem. If they kept surrounding Jerusalem as they did in 70 CE, they wouldn’t be able to escape.

E. Gathering the Olive Harvest

We have seen that the defeat of the XII Fuminata occurred on the 8th of November, 66 CE. They might have begun to flee after the Romans were defeated and before Hanukkah. However, I think this is unlikely.

Firstly, they needed time to gather food for their travel and stay in inhospitable parts of the country. Secondly, they needed time to bring in the valuable olive harvest and sell the produce to those who decided to stay.

F. Not During Hanukkah

Hanukkah commemorates the rededication of the Second Temple during the Maccabean revolt of 167 BCE. How appropriate it is for the day of vengeance to start on the last day of this feast.

In 66 CE, Hanukkah was celebrated between the 1st and 8th of December. The Jews would not have left during the feast, as it should not be a time of mourning, but a celebration of the Temple rededication and a symbol of freedom from oppression. The Jews would have also been celebrating their victory over the Romans, but any Christians among them would be preparing to depart.

G. Not on the Sabbath

And pray that your flight may not be in winter or on the Sabbath.

Matthew 24:20

Sabbaths that year were celebrated on the 15th, 22nd, 29th of November, and on December 6th, 13th, and 20th, so it is less likely they fled Jerusalem on those dates.

H. Not During Fast of Tevet

The Fast of Tevet was on Tuesday, the 16th of December 66 CE, so it is improbable that the Jews would have fled the city on that Sabbath.

I. Not in Winter

Travelling with children and food to survive winter would have been very unlikely.

And pray that your flight may not be in winter or on the Sabbath.

Matthew 24:20

The winter solstice in 66 CE took place between 19 December and 24 December, so the wise would have left Jerusalem before those dates, in line with Jesus’ warning against travelling during winter. 

Most of the Jews who believed in Jesus fled after the 8th of November, I believe the 66 CE Jewish Diaspora began en masse after Hanukkah, on the 9th of December. Temperatures still ranged from 7 degrees Celsius at night to a pleasant 19 degrees Celsius during the day. Most would have stopped fleeing by December 15th, the day before the Fast of Tevet and the subsequent colder weather. 

J. Cestius Informs Nero

Cestius was devastated by the loss of the Aquila and over 6000 men at the hands of the Jews. He was compelled to attack by the Jews, against Nero’s wishes, who was trying to appease Judea into submission. 

A plan was made to blame Gassius Florus, the Roman Procurator of Judea, for the attack. Cestius sent a man named Saul and other envoys to Nero, who was then based in Corinth, Achaia (modern-day Greece). This journey took 2-4 weeks in summer, but by November it had stretched to 6-8 weeks because storms made sea travel risky. Saul, travelling by land and sea, would arrive shortly before or on the 27th of December. Nero was then forced to muster his legions, and the attack on Judea began the following year. As a result, the Great Tribulation started under Nero and ended under Vespasian.

9. Summary

1. The 2300-day Great Tribulation prophesied by Daniel is not the same as the 7-year period at the end of the seventy-week prophecy of Daniel.
2. The transgression of desolation by the Roman armies concluded on 14 April 73 CE with the fall of Masada, bringing the First Jewish-Roman War to an end.
3. Daniel’s prophecy of being trampled underfoot concluded on 14 April, 73 CE, marking the end of the Great Tribulation.
4. 2300 days earlier, around December 27, 66 CE, the Great Tribulation was initiated by the Antichrist – Nero.
5. Nero ordered Vespasian to destroy the Jewish nation, including Israel.
6. The XII Fulminata legion originated from the Euphrates, reminding the Christians of Revelation 9 and 16.
7. This legion advanced from the east and moved west, fulfilling Jesus’ prophecy.
8. The Romans had to be defeated in November of 66 CE to fulfil Jesus’ prophecy so the Jews could flee after they left.

Next we move to the following year, 67 CE which heralds the first city taken, three signs on Passover, one at Pentecost, and all of them setting the stage for the 1290-day, 1335-day and forty-two-month prophecies of Daniel and Revelation.

© Use by Permission Awakening Impact Ministries/Dr Neville Westerbeek van Eerten D.Miss. 2026